📑 Executive Intelligence Brief
**AI Revolutionizes Iran War Strategy**
The Iran war has marked a historic turning point in the use of intelligence by major agencies, particularly Israel's Mossad and the United States' CIA. For decades, these agencies have been renowned for their expertise in gathering information, selecting targets, and executing orders. However, the ongoing conflict has witnessed a significant shift in their operational strategies, with the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) playing a crucial role.
According to Akash Manri Gowami, a doctoral candidate at the University of Oxford and a non-resident fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, India, the Iran war is essentially the first AI war. Gowami, an expert in intelligence diplomacy, notes that there is a balance being found between human intelligence and AI. The US and Israel have relied on torrents of classified and unclassified data, processed through advanced AI platforms, to pursue bombing patterns and strike patterns at immense speed and scale.
The Mossad, considered one of the elite intelligence agencies, has been highly effective in facilitating US and Israeli objectives on the ground. With an annual budget of about $3 billion and 7,000 staff, the agency has had a huge impact on the war. The assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is a notable example, where human intelligence presence on the ground was able to relay imagery of the Ayatollah's body for validation and verification. The Mossad also hacked into Iran's network of CCTV cameras, an extraordinary intelligence feat by any measure.
However, the use of AI has also raised concerns about the decline of human involvement in decision-making processes. The bombing of an elementary school in Minab, which killed at least 175 school children, is a catastrophic example of a target selected by AI. Preliminary evidence suggests that the US military intelligence agency's outdated intelligence classified the school as a military base, which had existed there decades earlier.
The Iran war has taught us a lot about the interaction between technology and human elements. While AI has enabled both US and Israeli forces to achieve tactical and strategic advantages, it has also highlighted the risks of relying solely on technology. Human analysts are still essential in gauging whether a strike is targeted based on existing intelligence, correct or false, and at a legitimate or illegitimate target.
The Iranian regime is currently under fire, with Mossad's ability to infiltrate supply chains and kill senior Hamas leaders on Iranian soil. The result has been a hollowing out of Iran's counterintelligence service, with the Islamic Republic hunting for moles and informants within its security services. This paranoia threatens traditional methods for bringing the war to an end, undercutting trust within the security services and making decision-making slower and less effective.
Intelligence services do have workarounds, and covert dialogue between the US, Israel, and Iran is possible. However, the essential role of intelligence services in wartime is also to pursue back-channel dialogue with the other side. The use of AI has become increasingly prominent, but it is ultimately up to humans to make decisions and strive for peace. As the war continues, it remains to be seen how the boundaries between human and technology will evolve, and whether the 2026 Iran war will be remembered as the moment when these boundaries finally collapsed.