SITUATION REPORT

The recent Asia defence forum in Sydney missed an opportunity for China to build bridges with Australia, a key regional player. Despite Australia's growing strategic alignment with the US and its increasing security cooperation with India, China's low-key role at the forum meant that it failed to seize the initiative to reassure Australia of its intentions. This missed chance will only serve to heighten regional tensions, particularly as Australia forges stronger security ties with the US and its Quad partners. China's failure to articulate its intentions and engage more substantively with Australia will lead to increased skepticism in Canberra about Beijing's goals. As Australia continues to strengthen its security relations with other regional players, China will find it increasingly difficult to maintain good relations with its southern neighbor. The implications of this are that China will struggle to keep Australia within its sphere of influence, and that regional security tensions will continue to escalate as a result. This is a missed opportunity that Australia will not soon forget.